Polls show five-point Democratic lead in Texas 15th district despite 18-point redraw

Recent surveys indicate that Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that delivered Donald Trump a record share of support in 2024, are now favoring Democratic candidates by a five to six point margin. This shift occurs in Texas's 15th congressional district, which Republicans redrew in 2025 to secure an expected 18 point advantage. The polling data suggests that the economic pressures and aggressive immigration enforcement in the border region have outweighed the structural benefits of the new map.

One major factor driving this change is the volume of immigration enforcement activity. Government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project show that Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, a larger share than any other state. Local leaders and business owners report that this crackdown is disrupting the labor force. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who leads the South Texas Builders Association, said he voted for Trump three times but will vote Democrat in November. He noted that an acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk so drastically that only four to six employees would show up for shifts.

Religious leaders in the area are also voicing criticism of federal policy. Father Roy Snipes, a priest who has served the La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly 50 years, preached to about 30 worshippers on the actions of ICE. The chapel is located about 200 yards from the Rio Grande. Snipes stated, "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours." His comments reflect a growing sentiment among local Hispanic residents who distinguish between securing the border and the specific methods used by the administration.

The Democratic candidate, Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has campaigned on economic concerns rather than national party identity. He told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA." At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin said, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job." These comments highlight how cost of living issues have become a central part of the political conversation in the Valley.

Republican officials acknowledge the shifting tides. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, said that while many voters accept the deportation of criminals, the removal of productive, law-abiding people is causing friction. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterm election as purely a game of turnout.

The 2024 election saw Trump secure about 55% of Hispanic votes in Texas, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. That success was partly due to a pledge to end illegal crossings, which are now at their lowest level in decades. However, surveys taken since late summer show a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president. If the current polling holds, a modest swing back to Democrats could put a US Senate seat in play, a race Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.