Israelis head to polls with no bloc holding a clear path to 61 seats

Israeli citizens go to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new Knesset, marking the first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. With no single bloc projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority, the outcome will determine which coalition leads a government facing deep domestic divisions and international pressure.

The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pro-Netanyahu coalition against a four-party opposition alliance. Netanyahu’s bloc includes his Likud party, along with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition brings together the Yashar party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has joined the Together alliance.

Polling data from public broadcaster KAN, released before a publication ban took effect on Friday, projects 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra’am and the Joint List. Both major blocs have stated they will not partner with Arab-led parties for now, which could complicate coalition formation and increase the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election.

Domestic issues drive much of the voter turnout. Many Israelis demand accountability for security failures prior to the 2023 attacks and are frustrated by the military exemption granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also object to Netanyahu’s judicial reform efforts, which they argue weaken Israel’s liberal democratic structure. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that secular and liberal opposition factions view this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

The vote arrives as Israel’s global standing has declined. Several allies have sanctioned illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many nations have condemned continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. When Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out, some booing and jeering.

The stakes are personal for Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges dating back to 2019 and scrutiny over security failures before October 7. A defeat could leave him more vulnerable in his ongoing trial, where a conviction could result in a prison sentence. The election will also influence the prospects for an inquiry into the 2023 attacks. Netanyahu is also subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest turnout among Palestinian citizens could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing Arab parties to win as many as 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades. Last month, the Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra’am, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race due to an article he wrote calling the October 7 attacks an important historical event.

Netanyahu has portrayed his rivals as likely partners for the Arab parties, claiming only Likud can prevent that alliance. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, argued that this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders, movement, and legal status.