Moscow Airports Lose Up to Nine Daily Operating Hours

Moscow's aviation sector faces a daily loss of up to nine operating hours as Ukrainian drone activity forces repeated airspace closures. This month, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports have suspended operations almost every day. On the worst days, these hubs remained closed for the maximum duration of the safety protocol, halting revenue-generating flights for the majority of the day.

The disruptions follow a strategy outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September, who stated that Ukraine would seek to make Russian airspace completely unsafe. He directed this warning at airlines, insurers, and travelers. The following day, Ukraine sent a similar alert to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed to commercial traffic.

The primary driver of these closures is the 'carpet' protocol administered by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. This procedure immediately closes airspace over a region if an aircraft violates borders, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone poses a military threat under this framework. He compared the situation to disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, arguing that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that Ukraine does not need advanced weapons to trigger the protocol. Simple drones without warheads or long range are sufficient to halt traffic. He pointed out that Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones per day. In October, Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic that Ukraine's efforts are just getting started, citing well-informed sources.

Experts warn that the current defense measures carry risks for civilian aircraft. Laneckij suggested Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of incidents similar to the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators determined that Russian air-defense missiles fired to counter drones killed 38 people on that flight. Matvejev added that a collision with a large drone weighing dozens of kilograms can be severe, even without explosives.

The financial impact extends to ticket prices and insurance premiums. Laneckij said foreign airlines' decision to continue flying to Russia depends on the military threat, passenger demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, premiums will rise, driving up ticket prices. This increase is particularly sensitive because competition in Russia's aviation market has shrunk as many airlines have exited the business, leaving fewer foreign carriers to meet existing demand.