Netanyahu's fate rests on 120 seats in a race with no clear winner

Israelis face a 120-seat parliament where neither major bloc projects a decisive majority. This Tuesday's vote marks the first general election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, which authorities have described as the worst security failure since the country's founding in 1948. The nation remains engaged in multi-front conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

Polling data reveals a deep divide. Right-leaning surveys favor the religious and right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Left-leaning polls show a lead for the "change bloc," a diverse group of center, left, and Arab parties united by opposition to the incumbent. Most projections suggest neither side will secure the 61 seats required to form a government unilaterally.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described the likely result as an indecisive outcome. He warned that such a stalemate could trigger protracted cross-ideological negotiations, the formation of a minority government, or a repeat election. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections due to similar deadlocks.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, seeks a fourth term. His campaign argues that only he can form a government without Arab party support and finish the war campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. He recently posted an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv to emphasize the Iranian nuclear threat. His slogan translates to "Either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb."

President Donald Trump backed Netanyahu last week, stating that if Israel has a leader other than Netanyahu, America might have to handle the conflict alone. "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," Trump said. Netanyahu now leans on this endorsement to argue he is the only partner capable of managing the U.S. relationship on Iran.

Challenging the incumbent is Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in Gaza while serving in the war cabinet. His party fielded a candidate list that is half women, contrasting with the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition. He promises a state inquiry into the October 7 intelligence failure, a measure Netanyahu has blocked.

Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of relying on fear-mongering and threats, including nuclear imagery. "This time, it won't work for him," Eisenkot said. Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old Tel Aviv engineer, viewed Eisenkot as the only real alternative. "He's straight and honest," Aharoni said. "He's the kind of leader who will take care of us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family."

Voter turnout will be a deciding factor. Arab Israelis, who make up about 20% of the population, are expected to vote in higher numbers to block Netanyahu's far-right allies. Two new parties focused on drafting ultra-Orthodox men for military service are also hovering near the parliamentary threshold. Their success could tip the balance in either direction.