Eisenkot weighs Arab coalition as Israeli vote count stalls

Israeli voters cast their ballots in the highest turnout since 1999, yet no governing majority emerged as results neared completion on Wednesday. Nearly 78% of eligible citizens voted, driven by frustration over the war and draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The high participation rate has raised the stakes for coalition talks that will determine whether the country faces another round of elections early next year.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party appears set to remain the largest bloc, but its share of the vote has dropped from 23.4% in 2022 to 20.8% with 85% of the count finished. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, leads the Yashar party with 16.1%. Arab-led parties captured 14.9% of the vote, a historic result that complicates the path to power. Local media projections place Likud allies at 53 seats and Yashar allies at 48, leaving both short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Netanyahu has declared he will not form a government with Arab-led parties, a move he called treasonous in comments after the vote. He warned against a dangerous government that might include them. His top challenger, Eisenkot, has left the door open to such a partnership under specific conditions, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and of Hamas as an extremist group. It remains unclear if Eisenkot’s other likely partners will accept this arrangement to unseat Netanyahu.

The Central Elections Committee expects to finish counting approximately half-million absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats by Thursday evening. Elad Naveh, the committee’s control manager, confirmed this timeline. President Isaac Herzog stated he must do everything possible to avoid a new election after such high turnout. Herzog is not required to task the leader of the largest party, which leaves open the possibility of a minority government or a new vote if negotiations fail.

Arab citizens of Israel, who are descendants of Palestinians who remained in the state after 1948, played a central role in the result. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, declared his party was no longer on the sidelines. The party briefly joined a governing coalition in 2021. Voters in Tel Aviv and Nazareth expressed shifting views on this prospect, with some seeing it as a necessity and others as a step toward repairing social divisions.

Yair Golan of the Democrats party said Israelis must stop being afraid of their Arab neighbors. Awni Zoabi in Nazareth thanked God for a possible return to rationality, noting that Arabic language had been treated like a crime. Hanna Doukhan in Tel Aviv said she sees no possibility of forming a government without Arab participation. These reactions highlight the renewed debate over national identity in a war-weary nation.

Supporters of Netanyahu argue he is the only leader who knows how to manage international relations and protect Jewish identity. Ran Cohen, a Jerusalem resident, said she prefers Netanyahu assemble the coalition. Detractors point to his ongoing corruption trial and his handling of the Gaza war, which began after the October 7, 2023, attack. They accuse his government of allowing ultra-Orthodox men to avoid military service while dragging out the hostage crisis for political gain.

If no majority coalition forms, Israel could face a fifth election since 2019. Eisenkot told supporters it is his personal duty to respect the will of the people. He said holding another election after such high turnout would be a mistake. Minority governments are also possible but would require cooperation from opposition parties to pass legislation. The next step depends on whether Eisenkot and Netanyahu can bridge the gap in the Knesset before the deadline.