Experts say Iran war may resume after November 3 vote

Military analysts predict that the United States and Israel will resume strikes against Iran shortly after the November 3 midterm election. They argue that a third round of combat will target energy systems and digital infrastructure, marking a shift from the previous two phases of the conflict.

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who now works at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war is almost inevitable. He noted that President Donald Trump faces only bad or worse options in the Persian Gulf. Citrinowicz expects the next attacks to focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and internet cables running under the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict has already produced two major phases over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days in a ceasefire. The second phase started in February following a U.S. military buildup, with Israel targeting senior leadership including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on territory, though the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports and Iran has attacked commercial ships.

These disruptions are driving up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the vote by creating fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed, stating that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands. Those demands include sanctions relief, reparations, release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium.

The human cost remains high. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media count over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The U.S. has lost 21 service members, mostly in Gulf base strikes, along with more than 70 Israelis. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iranian leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She expects retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment said Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. He argued diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by maximalist aims.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in days in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. Sadjadpour noted that Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit, stating that asking them to change their identity is unlikely to succeed.