Israel Vote: White House Aides Plan Pivot to Opposition

White House advisers are preparing to shift their diplomatic focus toward Israel's political opposition if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses the upcoming election.

US officials told Axios that staff are optimistic about the potential for cooperation with Netanyahu's rivals. One adviser described the current situation by saying, "[Netanyahu] is the devil [Trump] knows." The report indicates that many of the president's closest aides opposed his decision to endorse the prime minister, arguing he should have stayed out of the race entirely.

Vice President JD Vance has taken a distance from the endorsement. When reporters asked about the race this week, Vance stated, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters." This comment reflects a visible split within the administration regarding how to manage the relationship with Jerusalem.

Strains over policy have also emerged between the US and the Israeli government. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack criticized Israel's military operations in Syria. Following strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province, Barrack called the attack an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability." Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a closer relationship with the prime minister but have expressed frustration over Israel's efforts to strengthen Lebanon's government and curb settler attacks in the West Bank.

The diplomatic planning comes as Netanyahu's support erodes. The latest Maariv poll released this week shows the opposition bloc widening its lead to 54 seats. Netanyahu's bloc has dropped to 48 seats. In a direct matchup for prime minister, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot leads the incumbent with 49 percent support compared to 41 percent for Netanyahu.

The survey also measured public preference for government formation. Sixty percent of respondents prefer a unity government if the election does not produce a clear majority, while 23 percent favor another election. Among those supporting a unity government, 33 percent want an opposition candidate to lead it, compared to 19 percent who prefer Netanyahu. Eight percent supported a unity government regardless of leadership. Seventeen percent of respondents remained undecided.